tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350900071703238442.post2542620216382037842..comments2023-10-29T10:23:51.132-04:00Comments on Sully's Side: The real reason Obama picked BidenSullyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07252150116803332194noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350900071703238442.post-82580959009711813932008-08-28T12:14:00.000-04:002008-08-28T12:14:00.000-04:00And another thing about the Republican side. I th...And another thing about the Republican side. I think all the talk about Jindal and Palin is proof of my assertion that VP candidates are usually from among the weaker less experienced ranks. Both are like Obama, much too inexperienced to be considered for President.<BR/><BR/>Condoleeza Rice is another talked about person who would not even be considered if stronger politicians were open to a VP spot. Rice is experienced and smart and all that, but she has never once run for an elective office. She has never given a campaign speech or been in a position where she has had to react in real time to the kind of criticisms that elective politicians throw at one another and the kind of traps media types set for them.<BR/><BR/>There are 20 or so Republican governors and 48 or so Republican Senators. Most of them have no interest in the VP nomination.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350900071703238442.post-17653566491776599312008-08-28T11:31:00.000-04:002008-08-28T11:31:00.000-04:00Good question about the Republican side. It occur...Good question about the Republican side. It occurred to me as well after I posted the Biden thing, along with a further thought about how politicians see the VP nomination in general.<BR/><BR/>I think strong self sufficient up and coming politicians like Ed Rendell and Hillary Clinton will not accept a VP nomination unless they are almost sure the ticket will win. It's just not worth the risk because even if you become VP there is no guarantee that it will lead to the presidency. Al Gore, for instance, was VP for two terms with a fairly popular president and then he failed to win when he ran in his own right. Nixon also failed to win in his first try for president even though he was VP for two terms to a very popular president. In this regard we have an odd system which tends to result in relative weaklings or old folks ready to retire or very junior folks being selected for VP.<BR/><BR/>So let me put my thinking cap on about the Republicans. I think McCain will win, but I don't think he's by any means a sure thing. On the other hand McCain will almost surely be a one term president and he's not a big favorite with much of his own party, which makes the VP spot potentially more valuable than it would be with a candidate like Obama who is young and who is a big favorite with the core of his party. Another risk that Obama present, which McCain doesn't, is that a young president might dump a VP and choose another when he runs for a second term.<BR/><BR/>So I think McCain's VP spot is pretty desirable to a strong politician like Romney, especially because Romney will always have trouble getting elected to the Senate, for instance, in liberal Massachusetts. But his VP spot might not be so desirable to someone like Hutchinson who can keep her Senate seat in Texas til she dies. On the other hand Hutchinson might calculate that with her on the ticket she and McCain will almost certainly win.<BR/><BR/>A long way of saying I think the Republican side is more complicated, and I'm much less convinced about my logic than on the Demo side.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350900071703238442.post-1103776645483460882008-08-28T00:09:00.000-04:002008-08-28T00:09:00.000-04:00A very interesting column.I knew Hillary would nev...A very interesting column.<BR/><BR/>I knew Hillary would never have accepted a nomination for Vice President; because, quite frankly, I couldn't imagine her being content with the #2 slot. I also think she and Michelle Obama would have fought like two cats in a box.<BR/><BR/>But I had not considered the other points you brought up, and find them to be quite interesting.<BR/><BR/>Can you apply your theory to the Republican side and predict McCain's running mate? If not that, then who do you think will refuse the nomination?<BR/><BR/>***Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com